Connect with us

Altcoin

NewsQuakes boost DOGE hype, while TEL score rings a bell for traders

Published

on


What can you say about Dogecoin that hasn’t been said before? How about this: Elon Musk’s tweets aren’t the only thing that let the DOGE out.

This week, right in the middle of the retail trading frenzy that has turned everyone’s favorite cartoon puppy into a rabid bull-doge, Cointelegraph Markets Pro subscribers had the opportunity to chow down on a NewsQuake™ from Bitfinex, which can be seen as further exciting a rally all the way from $0.48 to $0.68.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Analysis

In the chart below you can see where the news was delivered to Markets Pro members via Discord and their mobile notifications (the red circle) and the immediate and dramatic price rise that followed.

NewsQuakes™ are sourced from a real-time aggregation engine, collated from over a thousand primary sources every minute and analyzed by an AI algorithm to determine the historical significance of the news. NewsQuakes™ are trained on staking announcements, exchange listings and key partnerships, and because they are delivered without human intervention, they can often be the fastest way for market participants to learn about major events in the cryptocurrency space.

In this case, everything seems to have worked as if it was a regular coin: A listing on a big exchange resulted in immediate price action that began to recede after roughly a day. Yet, when dealing with Dogecoin-related news, it doesn’t hurt to exercise caution and remember that this asset’s relationship with the news cycle is unlike any other.

iExec (RLC) Analysis

On the subject of NewsQuakes™ there was another perfect example this week of how the early trader gets the profits.

iExec (RLC) was hit by two consecutive NewsQuakes™, helping the asset add around 70% of value over the week. On May 4 came the announcement of a Coinbase listing – traditionally a very powerful type of news (first red circle in the chart below).

A similar announcement from Bithumb came in just 36 hours after the first, compounding the coin’s momentum (second red circle).

At this point, it becomes challenging to attribute the price dynamic to one of the two events, since the Coinbase announcement’s effects hadn’t yet expired (the system looks at 72-hour returns) when Bithumb’s kicked in.

Those Markets Pro subscribers who quickly acted on either of the NewsQuakes™ are likely fine with not knowing the exact contributions of each listing, however. In both cases, the value of being first to the news is clear from the immediate positive price action.

Telcoin (TEL) Analysis

This analysis wouldn’t be complete without a word about Telcoin (TEL), which rallied dramatically to ascend from just $0.11 to over $0.48 shortly after a Markets Pro member suggested adding the cryptocurrency to the platform.

While VORTECS™ Scores can take time to generate, they still look at the entire trading history of the newly-listed asset — thus when Telcoin’s first VORTECS™ Score was displayed, the algorithm already had clear confidence in bullish conditions for the token.

As seen in the chart below, VORTECS™ continued to identify strong bullish momentum even as the price rose, peaking at an almost-unprecedented score of 95 around 48 hours before the final push towards the $0.48 price spike.

The VORTECS™ Score is available exclusive to Cointelegraph Markets Pro members, and includes sentiment analysis, tweet and trading volume, and price action as components of the algorithm — which are then weighted according to a proprietary formula based on how similar these are to historical conditions. If there is a similarity in these factors, the score will be higher when historical precedents have most consistently led to higher prices.

VORTECS™ Score returns since January 3

The Markets Pro team has been tracking 42 sample strategies since January 3 2021, based on entering a position when the VORTECS™ Score crosses a threshold, and exiting it either when another score is reached or after a set period of time. The following data is taken from a snapshot on May 8th 2021 at 1pm ET. The full methodology is available here.

Holding Bitcoin: 79% return

Holding Top 100 altcoins: 485% return

Best-performing time-based VORTECS™ strategy (Enter 80 / Exit 24 hours): 2,467% return

Best-performing score-based VORTECS™ strategy (Enter 80, Exit re-crossing 80): 2,800% return

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to subscribers on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important Disclaimer

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.



Source link

Altcoin

Not sure if the bulls are back? Here’s how the golden cross spots trend reversals

Published

on

By


The most important aspect in trading is to correctly identify the long-term trend. Once this is done, the rest of the steps are not very difficult because all a trader needs to do is look for buying opportunities in an uptrend and selling opportunities in a downtrend. 

In reality, many traders complicate the process by waiting for lower levels to buy in a bull market and missing a large portion of the rally. Then, when the trend reverses and the price starts falling, the same traders start buying, which usually results in losses.

To avoid this pitfall, traders can incorporate the use of key moving average convergence patterns in order to have a better gauge of market momentum and the direction of the trend. In last week’s article, we reviewed the Death Cross, and this week we will look at the golden cross pattern. This setup can help keep traders at bay in a downtrend and give them a green signal to start buying when the trend turns bullish.

Let’s investigate this pattern and learn how to use it when trading.

What is a golden cross and how does it form?

A golden cross is a setup that signals a possible change in a bearish downtrend. It is formed when a faster period moving average, usually the 50-day simple moving average, crosses above the longer-term moving average, generally the 200-day SMA.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In a downtrend, both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA are sloping down. However, when the price reaches an attractive valuation, long-term investors start accumulating, which arrests the pace of the decline. As more investors start buying, the trend starts to turn up.

A sustained up-move results in the 50-day SMA changing its direction from down to up. However, the 200-day SMA is slower to respond, hence when it is either falling or has flattened out, the 50-day SMA rises above it, forming the golden cross.

When a golden cross forms, it is a sign that the downtrend has ended and a new uptrend could have begun.

However, like every setup, the golden cross is not foolproof. It gives false signals several times but with a few filters, traders may reduce the whipsaws.

Related: Here’s 5 ways investors can use the MACD indicator to make better trades

A profitable golden cross

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out at $3,858 on March 13, 2020, and the most recent golden cross formed on May 21, 2020, when the price closed at $9,061.96. That means, the BTC/USD pair had already moved 134% from the lows by the time the golden cross confirmed a change in trend.

Inexperienced traders may have felt the price has run up too fast and would have waited for a deep correction to happen before buying. However, when a trend changes, it rarely gives an opportunity to buy at much lower levels as was the case here.

The rally never looked back and it hit an all-time high at $64,899 on April 14, 2021, a massive 616% gain from the level where the golden cross formed. This shows that the trader who just bought and held after the formation of the golden cross would have earned huge returns.

However, every golden cross does not provide such outsized returns and sometimes traders fall victim to whipsaws.

A failed golden cross

Bitcoin dropped from a local high at $13,868.44 on June 26, 2019, to a local low at $6,430 on Dec. 18, 2019. The golden cross formed on Feb. 18, 2020, when the pair closed at $10,188.04.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, traders who bought after the golden cross formed may have suffered quick losses as the pair plummeted to $3,858 just a few days later. This shows how traders may sometimes get caught on the wrong foot by just buying after the golden cross.

Related: Unsure about buying the dip? This key trading indicator makes it easier

Filters can when the golden cross throws a false signal

Traders could avoid buying if the golden cross forms when the 200-day SMA is still sloping down. They can wait for the 200-day SMA to flatten out or turn up before buying as that may reduce the whipsaws.

EOS/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

As an example, EOS formed a golden cross pattern on Feb. 8, 2020 when the price was at $4.76. This price cleared the filter as the 200-day SMA had flattened out. However, had traders taken the trade, it would have turned into a loss as the EOS/USDT pair topped out at $5.49 on Feb. 17, 2020, and then plunged sharply to $1.35 on March 13, 2020.

The second golden cross on Aug. 22, 2020, did not clear the filter as the 200-day SMA was sloping down when the pattern formed. This would have kept the bulls from getting sucked into this trade.

The third golden cross on Dec. 12, 2020, cleared the filter but it would have hit the stop-loss as it breached the strong support at $2.20 on Dec. 23, 2020. Finally, the fourth golden cross that formed on Feb. 08, 2021, turned out to be profitable.

The above example shows that when the price is stuck in a range, the golden cross does not act as the ideal indicator. Therefore, traders may add another filter to buy only after the price breaks out of the range. This may reduce the whipsaws further and help traders buy only in uptrends.

When a cryptocurrency is in a downtrend, traders may wait for the golden cross to occur before starting their purchases. This could keep traders out of trouble in a falling market.

After the golden cross sustains and a new uptrend is confirmed, traders may look for buying opportunities. Among the many possibilities, one that was highlighted in an earlier article to buy on dips to the 20-day EMA or the 50-day SMA could come in handy.

Key takeaways

A golden cross can confirm that a downtrend has ended and a new uptrend could have begun. Until a golden cross forms, long-term investors may avoid cherry-picking as that may result in losses in a downtrend.

However, like every other pattern, the golden cross is not perfect. It may result in whipsaws if the coin enters a consolidation during the bottoming formation. Therefore, traders must take precautions to avoid being sucked into bull traps.

Once the uptrend is established after the golden cross, traders may look for buying opportunities and stay with the trend till a reversal is signaled.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.