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Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Breakout Over $60K Expected on Coinbase Listing

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Key Bitcoin Takeaways

  • Bitcoin flirts with $60,000 for a breakout move.
  • The cryptocurrency is trending inside a classically bullish ‘Ascending Triangle’ pattern.
  • Coinbase’s listing on Nasdaq, US inflation data update this week promises further upside.

Bitcoin has endured significant selling pressure over the last few trading sessions as it attempts to close above $60,000.

The flagship cryptocurrency trades $1,500 lower from its previous all-time high level, near $61,778 (data from Coinbase). Despite positive fundamentals, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s decision to offer bitcoin-enabled investment services to their wealthy clients, BTC/USD bulls remain cautious against a rising US dollar.

As a result, repeated attempts to break above $60,000 have failed on follow-throughs. The new week also begins with Bitcoin trading above the said psychological resistance level, relying on a convergence of technical and fundamental catalysts to pursue an extended uptrend.

That Ascending Channel

The first bullish cue for Bitcoin comes from an Ascending Triangle forming on its daily charts.

In retrospect, Ascending Triangles are bullish continuation patterns that appear when an asset fluctuates inside a range specified by a horizontal resistance line and a rising trendline. The price retests the upper range repeatedly, only to undergo a breakout later. The massive upside move takes the price higher by as much as the maximum Triangle height.

Bitcoin anticipates a wild upside move heading into the new weekly session. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin anticipates a wild upside move heading into the new weekly session. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin checks all the boxes when it comes to qualifying for an Ascending Triangle breakout. The cryptocurrency now eyes a breakout that takes its price north by up to $20,000 — the maximum distance between the Triangle’s upper and lower trendline. That shifts the price target to $80,000.

Coinbase Listing, Inflation Data

Bitcoin’s potential to log a bullish breakout also increases because of Coinbase’s listing on Nasdaq Stock Market this Wednesday. The milestone entry on Wall Street by one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency firms has raised speculations among bulls about an extended bitcoin price rally.

“Traditional investors who purchase Coinbase stock will indirectly speculate on the crypto market, and similarly, crypto traders who own Coinbase stocks will have a vested interest in the success of the company,” said James Anderson, CEO of RioDeFi, an ecosystem of interoperable financial products.

If not a follow-through buying, the Coinbase news expects to make a holder out of an average trader. Blockchain analytics platform Glassnode noted the same in its recent analysis, noting an increase in unspent bitcoin units across wallets that held the cryptocurrency long-term.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

The only snag in the Bitcoin rally anticipated this week could come from higher-than-expected inflation data.

Treasury yields volatility could pick up if March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes higher than usual this Wednesday. In turn, that would increase the appeal of holding the US dollar among foreign investors. It should at least limit Bitcoin’s demand in global markets, if not hurt it altogether.

Long-term, crypto bulls treat higher inflation as their cue to stay invested in Bitcoin. Many corporates, including Tesla, have previously decided to invest in cryptocurrency to safeguard their balance sheets against fiat-led devaluation.

Photo by Kurt Cotoaga on Unsplash 



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Bitcoin

Bulls aim to reclaim $40K ahead of Friday’s $520M BTC options expiry

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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have little reason to celebrate the 25% rally over the past nine days. After testing the $31,000 support on June 8, top traders’ optimism faded, and even the recent $41,000 high was unable to boost their expectations.

Contrary to market sentiment, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority has indicated a significant increase in cryptocurrency ownership in the country. A consumer survey found that 2.3 million adults in the U.K. now hold crypto assets, which is up from 1.9 million last year.

Another theory that has been proven wrong is the supposition that whales have been selling, causing the Bitcoin price to remain below $47,000 for 31 days. Counter to this narrative, data from Santiment shows that addresses holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC increased their positions by $367 billion during that period.

Regardless of investors’ long-term bullishness, there is $520 million worth of BTC options set to expire at 8:00 am UTC on June 18. While the initial screening shows the neutral-to-bullish call options with a 20% lead, a more granular view provides a different picture.

Bitcoin June 18 aggregate options expiry by strike. Source: Bybt

The neutral-to-bullish call (buy) option provides upside price protection to buyers, while the opposite occurs when holding the protective put (sell) options. By measuring each price level’s risk exposure, traders can gain insight into how bullish or bearish traders are positioned.

The total number of contracts set to expire on June 18 is 13,400, or $520 million at Bitcoin’s current $39,000 price. Bulls lead with 1,240 contracts, equivalent to $48 million, but it depends on what price Bitcoin will stand on Friday morning.

Bulls have a $60 million lead above $38,000

While the initial picture seems bullish, one must consider that the $44,000 call (buy) options are almost worthless, with less than sixteen hours left before expiry. A more balanced situation emerges when those bullish contracts are disregarded.

Less than 2,200 call options have been placed at $38,000 or below, an $84 million open interest. At $40,000, another 1,000 neutral-to-bullish options become active, raising the open interest to $128 million.

On the other hand, the protective put options at $38,000 and higher amount to 750 contracts are worth $28 million. This gives bulls a comfortable $60 million lead and an incentive to move the price above $40,000, increasing the difference to $120 million. In this case, 99% of the protective put options will become worthless.

Related: Traders look for Bitcoin price daily close at $41K to confirm bullish reversal

Bears need to wait for until last minute to salvage their position

Options contracts at Deribit, OKEx, and Bit.com happen exactly at 8:00 am, so there is no benefit in trying to manipulate the price ahead of that event. However, bears may have thrown the towel, concentrating efforts on the monthly expiry on June 25. Bulls, on the other hand, have strong incentives to boost their profits on June 17.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.