Bitcoin traders and analysts are sticking to their conviction that the cryptocurrency’s price will hit at least $70,000 in the coming sessions.
At the core of their upside outlook lies a classic technical indicator. Dubbed as Ascending Triangle, the pattern forms when an asset forms two or more rising troughs and almost equal highs in conjugation. The trendlines connecting these dots converge as the price rises, making it appear like a rising triangle.
Bitcoin Bullish Structure? Check.
Bitcoin ticks almost all boxes when it comes to confirming that it is forming an Ascending Triangle. The cryptocurrency’s two-month-old structure prompted it to test levels around $60,000 repeatedly as resistance. Meanwhile, the price kept rising while treating a rising trendline as support. The only link missing is a breakout to the upside.
“When this breaks above $60,000 with conviction, don’t stand in the way,” one analyst proclaimed on Twitter.
Bitcoin bullish triangle structure, as shared by CryptoHornHairs. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The bullish triangle breakouts tend to shift the asset’s upside target at a level above the widest distance between the upper and lower trendline. Applying these theoretical definitions on the Bitcoin charts ensure that it would break above $75,000 in the coming sessions. $70,000 remains a psychological resistance target.
Bitcoin analyst Josh Olszewicz confirmed that a breakout move would push the bitcoin price towards $75,000. Thereon, the cryptocurrency would start consolidating in the $70,000-75,000 area. Meanwhile, another analyst — albeit a pseudonymous one — provides fundamental catalysts that could make the explosive bullish move happen.
Coinbase IPO FOMO
Pentoshi, a widely-followed Twitter account, noted that the upcoming direct listing of Coinbase, a US-based cryptocurrency exchange, on Nasdaq, would serve as a tailwind to technically bullish structures. In his opinion, Bitcoin is consolidating inside a Symmetrical Triangle — another technical indicator professing an asset’s bullish continuation bias.
Bitcoin symmetrical triangle structure. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
“CB IPO is now 6 days out. BTC supply is at new all-time lows. Yet, no announcements of new holdings,” the independent analyst wrote.
“I feel a lot of companies could/will announce around that time to capitalize off the momentum. Combined with hype at Influx of new money that CB [custody], moon,” he added.
But technical indicators are not always accurate. A study conducted by Samurai Trading Academy shows that Ascending Triangles have a success rate of 72.77 percent. Meanwhile, the possibility that bitcoin breaks above its symmetrical triangle structure stand further lower at 54.87 percent (considering it also appears like a bullish pennant).
Dogecoin, CryptoCurrency Reddit communities surge as crypto euphoria heats up
Published
2 hours ago
on
April 18, 2021
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With much of the market fixated on Bitcoin’s (BTC) sudden price correction over the weekend, retail interest in digital assets appears to be on the rise, according to the latest statistics from Reddit.
The r/dogecoin community added 145,859 weekly subscribers, according to Subreddit Stats. The gains are hardly surprising given DOGE’s dramatic rally over the past week. The meme-based cryptocurrency skyrocketed 400% during that period, bringing its yearly returns to an eye-watering 5,000%.
DOGE’s parabolic rally moderated over the weekend, with social media sentiment data from The TIE and Cointelegraph indicating more pain in the short term. That’s because price action is often correlated with social media engagement; a decline in the latter is sometimes a precursor to bearish price action in the near term.
Meanwhile, the r/CryptoCurrency community, which is devoted to all things digital assets, added 86,838 new subscribers during the week. New community members were welcomed by platinum award recipient “mirza1h” on Sunday. In a subreddit post, miraza1h said:
“Past week has been insane in the crypto world, so naturally things here weren’t like they normally are. Your curious posts/comments may have been ignored a bit. In the weekend things are a bit more chill, so feel free to ask us anything you want.
The user also introduced new subreddit followers to Moon, the native token of the r/CryptoCurrency community.
Much like DOGE, the overall cryptocurrency market limped into Sunday’s session, having declined by a cumulative $386 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. The digital-asset market cap briefly fell below $1.9 trillion before recovering to around $2 trillion.
Massive shakeouts are nothing new for seasoned cryptocurrency investors. Even during bull markets, declines of 20% or more are fairly common, especially after major rallies. Speculation about an abrupt decline in Bitcoin’s hash power and the possibility of U.S. regulatory action against crypto-friendly banks may have contributed to the decline on Sunday.
Even with the latest decline, the cryptocurrency market is still double the size it was in January when it first crossed the $1 trillion milestone.
Peak fear? Bitcoin funding rates crash to lowest levels in 7 months
Published
5 hours ago
on
April 18, 2021
By
The funding rate of Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to levels not seen since September 2020 as the price of Bitcoin plummeted below $52,000 on April 18. Quant trader and analyst Lex Moskovski says it shows fear has returned to the market.
According to the data from Glassnode, the average Bitcoin futures funding rate across all exchange dropped to as low as around -0.03% on Sunday
What is funding rate and why does it dropping matter?
Bitcoin futures exchanges use a mechanism called “funding” to achieve balance in the market.
The way the mechanism works is simple: if there are more longs or buyers in the market, the funding rate rises, and vice versa.
As such, when the funding rate turns negative, it means the majority of the market is short-selling Bitcoin, indicating fear in the market.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin was hovering at around $64,000 in anticipation of the Coinbase public listing. At the lowest point of the day on April 18, BTC dropped to as low as $50,000.
From the day’s highest to lowest point, the price of Bitcoin dropped by almost 15% against the U.S. dollar.
The market sentiment can change so quickly because many traders use high leverage across major exchanges.
During the Coinbase public listing week, the funding rate of Bitcoin was stable at 0.1% to 0.15% on top futures exchanges like Binance and Bybit.
This shows that many traders were aggressively longing or buying Bitcoin, making the futures market incredibly overheated.
When this happens, the incentive to short sell Bitcoin massively increases and it puts the market at risk of a big cascade of liquidations.
There has been speculation over the past 48 hours that the abrupt drop in the hash rate of the Bitcoin blockchain network led to the price drop.
On April 16, major Chinese mining facilities and pools saw outages after China’s Xinjiang region experienced blackouts.
Consequently, the hash rate of Bitcoin dropped quickly thereafter, leading to concerns that it would hinder the market sentiment around BTC.
However, Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneanhaim Ventures, said that the Bitcoin hash rate dip likely did not cause the price of BTC to drop. He said:
“The idea that a power outage last night in a mining region in China led to the dip in $BTC is utter nonsense, just like the spurious correlation graphs above. But even worse, when you run the math *there is no correlation* If someone is confident in a correlation and has enough data to make a graph, ask them for the receipts. If they have no idea how to run a regression test, then they don’t actually know if its correlated or not.”
If the Bitcoin price drop was not caused by fundamental factors but rather was purely technical as a result of an overcrowded futures market, the case for a swift recovery strengthens.
In the short term, it is favorable for Bitcoin to remain at around the $56,000 support area, as the futures market finds composure and the funding rates stabilize.