Bitcoin
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOT, UNI, LTC, LINK, THETA
According to CoinShares, the institutional inflow into crypto products hit $4.5 billion in Q1, which is 11% higher than the intake seen in Q4 2020. This shows that institutional interest is on the rise but the quarter-on-quarter growth has slowed down from the 240% recorded in Q4 2020.
As Bitcoin price moves higher, more funds are needed to sustain the levels. Therefore, if institutional inflows do not pick up in the next few days, Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins could witness a major correction.
The next correction could test the resolve of institutional investors and even though these investors have deep pockets, some may have jumped into crypto only for quick speculative gains. There is always the possibility that investors may dump their positions if Bitcoin starts a correction.
While this may accelerate the fall, lower levels are likely to attract investors who may have missed the bus earlier. If this assumption plays out, volatility throughout the market may remain high in the next few days.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to see if it also projects a possible correction.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s failure to cross the stiff overhead resistance zone at $60,000 to $61,825.84 seems to have attracted profit-booking from short-term momentum traders. This has pulled the price back below the 20-day exponential moving average ($56,863) today.
If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the bears may sense an opening and are likely to challenge the critical support at the 50-day simple moving average ($54,333). If this support cracks and the bears manage to sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, the selling could intensify.
The next support on the downside is $50,460. If this level also gives way, the BTC/USDT pair could plummet down to $43,006.77. The flattening moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) dropping below 52 suggest that the bulls may be losing their grip.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the pair to a new all-time high. If they succeed, the pair could start its journey to the next target objective at $69,540 and then $79,566.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) broke to a new all-time high on April 2 but could not take off and continue its climb. This showed hesitation among the bulls and even though they managed to push the price to a new all-time high at $2,150 on April 6 the rally has since stalled.
That may have frustrated the momentum traders who seem to have dumped their positions today, resulting in a drop to the 20-day EMA ($1,904). If the ETH/USDT pair rebounds strongly from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate demand at lower levels.
The bulls will then make one more attempt to drive the price above $2,150. If they succeed, the pair could start its journey to the next target objective at $2,618.14.
This positive view will invalidate if the bears sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest a possible change in sentiment and that could drag the price down to the trendline.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) is in a strong uptrend. The bears tried to pull the price back below the breakout level at $348.69 today but the long tail on the candlestick shows the bulls purchased this dip aggressively.
The rising moving averages and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest the bulls are firmly in command. If the buyers can flip $348.69 into support, then the BNB/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend that could take it to $500 and then $530.
On the other hand, if the price dips below $348.69, it will suggest that higher levels are attracting profit-booking from traders. The bullish momentum may weaken if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA ($314).
XRP/USDT
XRP’s breakout above $0.65 on April 5 completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which had a target objective at $1.11. The altcoin met this target on April 6 when it reached an intraday high at $1.11.
Traders who follow technical analysis seem to have booked profits near the target objective, resulting in a sharp pullback today.
The bulls are attempting to stall the correction near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.84 as seen from the long tail on the candlestick. If the buyers can sustain the rebound, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels and keep the prospects of a break above $1.11 alive.
On the other hand, if the XRP/USDT pair breaks below $0.84, the correction could deepen to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.77. Such a deep correction may delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) attempted an up-move on April 6, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests a lack of demand at higher levels. The bears have latched on to the opportunity today and are attempting to sink the price to $1.03.
The bulls are likely to defend the $1.03 support aggressively. If the price rebounds off this level strongly, the bulls will try to push the price above the moving averages. If they can do that, the ADA/USDT pair could remain range-bound for a few more days.
The flat 10-day EMA ($1.18) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand.
This neutral view will invalidate if the $1.03 support cracks. In such a case, the pair could start its journey toward the support at $0.80 and then $0.70.
DOT/USDT
The failure of the bulls to push the price above the all-time high at $146.80 on April 5 and 6 could have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders. That may have pulled Polkadot (DOT) back below the breakout level at $42.28 today.
The bulls are currently attempting to defend the 20-day EMA ($38). If they can achieve a strong rebound off this support, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The buyers may then make one more attempt to clear the all-time high. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $53.50.
On the contrary, a weak rebound will suggest weakness and a lack of urgency among traders to buy aggressively. That will open the chances for the bears to pull the price below the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could drop to $26.50.
UNI/USDT
Uniswap (UNI) attempted to rise above the $32.50 resistance but failed. This shows a lack of buyers at higher levels. The bears are now attempting to sink the pair below the $27.97 to $25.50 support zone.
If they succeed, the UNI/USDT pair could start its journey toward the next support at $22 and then $18.
However, the flat 20-day EMA ($29.59) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. If the bulls can defend the support zone, the pair is likely to extend its range-bound action for a few more days.
LTC/USDT
Litecoin (LTC) broke above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle on April 5 and followed it up with another up-move on April 6 that took the price to the stiff resistance at $246.96.
The failure of the bulls to clear the hurdle at $246.96 may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders and selling by aggressive bears. That pulled the price down to the breakout level from the triangle today.
If the LTC/USDT pair rebounds off this level aggressively, it will suggest that the bulls are accumulating on dips. The buyers will then make one more attempt to climb the wall at $246.96. If they manage to do that, the pair could start its journey to $307.42.
On the contrary, if the bears sink the price below the moving averages, the pair could drop to the support line of the triangle.
LINK/USDT
Chainlink (LINK) broke above the $32 resistance on April 5 and followed it with another up-move on April 6 but the bulls could not challenge the all-time high at $36.93. This suggests the bears have not given up and are active at higher levels.
The LINK/USDT pair has dipped back below the $32 level today. The bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA ($29.85). If they manage to do that and push the price back above $32 within the next couple of days, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels.
The bulls may then again try to propel the price above $36.93. Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the moving averages, it will suggest that the recent breakout above $32 was a bull trap. The pair could then drop to $24.
THETA/USDT
After trading in a tight range for the past few days, THETA surged today and attempted to break out of the $14 to $14.96 overhead resistance. However, the bears thwarted this attempt as seen from the long wick in today’s candlestick.
If they succeed, the THETA/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend that has a target objective at $17.65 and then $22.50. The 20-day EMA ($11.13) has started to turn up once again and the RSI has risen above 68, suggesting the momentum favors the bulls.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to stall the uptrend in the overhead resistance zone. If they manage to do that, the pair could extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
After weeks of Bitcoin (BTC) sell-offs, high-net worth individuals, or whales, are finally back to buying.
Their buying activity did not only pick up when the BTC price broke out of the two-months ascending triangle to new all-time highs, but also stayed intact since the price crash on April 18.
Whales have come back to accumulate Bitcoin
Their continuous buying activity comes at a time when addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin reached their 4-month support line.
This is probably not a coincidence as the turnaround takes place at a time when profit-taking in the market is close to its support line too.
Current profit-taking behavior has followed a 7-month trend
The level at which profit-taking takes place can be derived from the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), which measures the ratio between the price sold and the price paid for a coin while disregarding temporary coin movements (movements within less than 1 hour).
In other words, aSOPR measures by how much holders were sitting in profit (in USD) by the time they sold their coins.
Since September 2020, profit-taking has kept finding positive support at higher levels. This suggests that whenever sell-offs happened in the past seven months, sellers were comfortable not selling at a higher profit level each time, compared to the previous sell-offs. However, this trend might eventually come to an end.
Profit-taking activity suggests the market is at a pivotal moment
When zooming out and looking at profit-taking behavior in all prior bull markets, it becomes apparent that this is not only a one-time or a short-term trend but rather a longer-term pattern in Bitcoin bull markets.
These support lines tend to hold for 3-18 months. The chart below shows that a break of the second support line in each bull market historically confirmed that the bull market top was in.
Not only is the aSOPR close to breaking the 7-month support, but there is also one major difference in the latest pattern of this metric that could be a cause of concern.
Usually, the short-term tops of the aSOPR come in at higher levels each time as price increases further and rising confidence leads people to hold on to higher profits after each sell-off.
However, in the latest pattern, profits have been realized earlier in every sell-off wave for the last three months (see red arrow), a pattern usually common after a bull market top was already in.
Short-term sellers are in the driver’s seat
The latest pattern could be explained by a slower price increase in recent months and a higher number of short-term holders realizing profits. This assumption is confirmed by looking at HODL Waves, which visualize the time Bitcoins are held on to.
The redder the color, the shorter the holding period. It becomes visible that it is short-term holders who have held Bitcoin for between one week and three months have been primarily selling into the market as of late.
When looking at the profit-taking behavior of short-term holders (STH-SOPR) only, one could infer that this cohort of traders might almost be done selling. The latest dip below the value of 1 shows that short-term holders even started realizing losses.
In a bull market run-up, this is usually where a bottom in price could be expected as selling activity tends to decrease significantly.
However, as bull market tops are not formed by a lack of sellers but rather by a lack of buyers, it is highly important to also look at the trend of the current demand side.
Current on-chain volume activity suggests that the capital inflow trend is still intact. A high number of coins are still changing hands, suggesting that buying activity is still ongoing. The realized price, which expresses this buying activity by valuing all Bitcoins based on when they last moved on a daily basis, gives a good idea of how much capital moved in and out of Bitcoin.
A steep curve suggests high on-chain transaction volumes. If it is followed by a flat trend, it usually indicates the beginning of the bear market as not enough buyers are coming into the market willing to pay higher prices anymore. As long as this steep curve does not flatten, there should be no concern about a dwindling number of buyers.
Although this evidence suggests that the bull market top is likely not in yet, there is also no clear confirmation that sellers are done selling just yet.
A break of the aSOPR 10-day moving average support line could be confirmed in the next few days. This may signal a trend shift in sellers’ behavior from bullish to bearish. Therefore, a negative short- to mid-term scenario should be considered if this occurs.
Support levels in a bearish case
There are two major price support levels to look out for. The first one is around $51,325, which could be a strong defense zonea support level where whales most recently acquired a high volume of Bitcoin.
The second price support level is the NVT (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) price, which is currently at $47,679 and is a major price support level in Bitcoin bull markets.
If the market price was to fall significantly below the NVT price without a quick recovery within a few days, a detailed analysis of the demand side would be needed to judge if the market’s bullish structure has broken.
Market at a critical level, strong support between $47K–$51K
The supply-side suggests that sellers are currently in the driver’s seat, even selling Bitcoin at a loss in the past few days. However, their selling activity is expected to significantly reduce over the next few days if current behavior stays in line with prior bull market sell-offs.
If that is not the case, the breakdown of the aSOPR 7-month support line is likely and could signal a trend shift from bullish to bearish selling. Further downside should be expected with next major support in the range of $47,000-$51,000.
On the demand side, the capital flow still looks healthy. Enough volume is still willing to pay current prices, while whales ramped up their buying again. Current price action is still above NVT price, which suggests that current price fluctuations are still within the expected bullish territory.
Nevertheless, the demand side should be watched closely for a potential dry-up in on-chain volume over the next few days if price comes close to the NTV price.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Nothing here should be considered investment or trading advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Every investment and trading move involves risk. The author owns Bitcoin. You should conduct your own research when making a decision and/or consult with a financial advisor.
This metric that called the 2017 top is now flashing red
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This metric that called the 2017 top is now flashing red
Ripple Co-founder Argues Need for Bitcoin to Switch from Proof-of-Work (PoW)
UK’s Financial Conduct Authority Working with Binance to Understand Tradable Stock Token Services Recently Unveiled
This metric that called the 2017 top is now flashing red
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UK’s Financial Conduct Authority Working with Binance to Understand Tradable Stock Token Services Recently Unveiled
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