Bitcoin seems to be struggling at the $58,000 level, which is leading some traders to fear a more significant correction could take place.
While Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2021 performance has been incredibly strong, its current 696% gain and comments from United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggesting that cryptocurrencies are used to finance terrorism may be enough to have investors feeling a bit cautious.
Reducing open position sizes is usually the method most investors use to reduce exposure, but another way to manage risk is to use BTC options contracts to provide protection. Buying a put (sell) option is the easiest way, but it is quite costly considering the current high volatility scenario.
For example, a March 26 put option with a $56,000 strike trades at $5,300, and its holder would only profit if BTC trades below $50,700 in 32 days. That would be 12% below the current $57,500 price. This protection cost depends on the number of days until expiry and the implied volatility, or a traders’ expectation of substantial price swings.
By using call (buy) options and puts (sell), a trader can create strategies to reduce this cost. There are infinite possibilities, but for now, let’s focus on a low-cost bearish one.
Protective puts can generate a profit on the downside
This bearish strategy consists of buying a protective put in order to profit from the downside while simultaneously selling call options at higher strikes. These additional trades will cover the put option’s cost but will result in losses if BTC surpasses a certain threshold.
Profit / Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder
The above trade consists of buying 1 BTC contract of the March 26 put option with a $56,000 strike, while selling 1 BTC contract of the March 26 call option with a $64,000 strike.
As the estimate above shows, the end result between $56,000 and $64,000 is neutral. The trader would not incur any losses, but would also not profit from the strategy. On the other hand, if BTC drops to $46,000, or by more than 20% from $57,500, the contract holder would profit by $10,200.
In order for the trader to incur a $5,000 loss, BTC would have to reach $69,000 on March 26, which is equivalent to a 20% gain from the current price. Therefore, even though this is a bearish strategy, traders would only incur losses above $64,000, or 11% above the current price level.
This strategy provides a good risk-reward for those seeking downside protection. Moreover, there is zero upfront involved for those trades, except from the margin or collateral deposit requirements.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Why is Bitcoin $86K in Nigeria? Here’s why the BTC premium is huge in some countries
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2 hours ago
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February 26, 2021
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Since the start of 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) price has been chasing new highs on a weekly and daily basis. On Feb. 21, BTC reached a new all-time high at $58,300. However, an interesting phenomenon is that even with many global cryptocurrency exchanges in existence, BTC’s price can still vary greatly depending on geography.
This raises an intriguing question. How can Bitcoin price simultaneously trade at $53,047 in Malaysia, $49,727 in Singapore, $51,133 in India, and over $86,000 in Nigeria? Is the reason simply a temporary imbalance between buyers and sellers, taxes, regulations? Or is there something else at play?
As shown in the chart below, there really isn’t a set price for BTC as nearly every country has its own digital asset valuation.
At any given time, cryptocurrency prices will differ between countries, even after adjusting the currency rate. Indeed, some additional buying or selling pressure could create discrepancies, but that should not be continuous and steady.
What’s causing the huge BTC price discrepancies?
This phenomenon isn’t something new or exclusive to cryptocurrencies, however. Exxon Mobil stocks, for example, are traded in the United States, Russia, Argentina, Germany, Mexico, and Switzerland markets.
While there may be different reasons for the friction including bureaucracy and nation-specific laws, they’re basically the same asset. Nevertheless, their prices usually differ after adjusting for currency exchange rates.
Unlike stocks, however, transferring cryptocurrencies usually takes less than an hour, and it doesn’t depend on custodians and depositary receipt administrators. Therefore, bureaucracy can not be the reason for the big price differences for Bitcoin, which is borderless.
On the other hand, suppose one just bought BTC in the U.S. or Europe and is willing to sell it in Argentina to profit from the 6.5% difference. Even if there were no trading fees involved, the result would be the local currency, Argentine Pesos ARS.
Things get more complicated though, as one will need to convert this fiat money back to USD or EUR. There might be domestic restrictions, taxes, or even worse, a different currency rate for foreigners. Moreover, traditional currency remittances don’t take place on weekends and usually take one or two business days.
2020 index of economic freedom. Source: heritage.org
Not surprisingly, the countries with the highest BTC valuations consistently score low on investment and financial freedom global rankings. Barriers and taxes created by strict government controls translate into additional risks and costs for the fiat conversion and remittance. This all contributes to the premium seen versus the remaining countries.
Government action might create extreme situations
Extreme capital control situations such as the Nigeria Central Bank recently shutting down all cryptocurrency-related bank accounts could be behind the current 70% premium versus global BTC markets. But Nigeria likely has the highest premium in the world because this country, in particular, is also the leader when it comes to Bitcoin adoption, based on the latest data.
#Bitcoin Price is now $80,000 in Nigeria – a 60% premium.
That’s what happens when you try to ban something people want.
Eventually, arbitrage traders will find a solution to bypass sanctions, and the price gap should tighten. But right now, there is no effective way to “profit” from the arbitrage.
For those wondering what would cause Bitcoin to trade below most liquid markets such as the U.S., there is no definitive answer. It is most likely some regulatory hurdle for depositing fiat money on local exchanges, thus creating an imbalance favoring the sell-side.
The negative premium is less common, however, and stablecoins could be used to mitigate this effect. Meanwhile, when a hefty premium is seen in local fiat currency, it does not justify a similar price gap for dollar-denominated stablecoin trading.
Thus, such differences in pricing across various countries represent the risks, red tape, taxes, and inefficiencies of converting fiat between currencies and sending fiat money across borders.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Elon Musk unfazed by rumored possibility of SEC probe into Dogecoin tweets
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3 hours ago
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February 26, 2021
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Rumors of a possible investigation by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission into Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s alleged impact on Dogecoin’s price moves have been circulating on social media over the past day — a phenomenon that one Twitterer has quipped is “peak 2021.”
Musk’s previous show-downs with the SEC notwithstanding, the CEO appears to be nonplussed about the possibility of an all-too-real legal fallout sparked by his penchant for the meme cryptocurrency. Musk’s professed love for “dogs & memes” has spurred him to repeatedly post jocular memes about Dogecoin (DOGE), most recently one showing the Doge mascot “on the actual moon.”
While the reference apes trader lingo for stratospheric price action and could therefore be construed as some form of endorsement, Musk has publicly said that for all his love of the meme cryptocurrency, he is a partisan of Bitcoin (BTC) when it comes to strategic personal and corporate investment. That hasn’t stopped the CEO’s twittering, however tongue-in-cheek, from providing some serious fuel for memecoin market volatility — Dogecoin Christmas 2020 being just one instance.
Musk’s apparently all-too-real impact on the price moves of both cryptocurrencies, given his enormous social media following, makes disentangling meme fun from celebrity shilling almost impossible. Legal advisors have previously voiced their opinion that the CEO could already be in for scrutiny from the SEC after his documented influence on Bitcoin’s price moves this year.
Both the prospect of an SEC investigation and the prospect of Doge’s metamorphosis into “a real currency,” remain, for now, parallel meme-like and humorous eventualities in the CEO’s imagination. Musk’s previous SEC battles back in 2018 may have had real ramifications for the CEO, resulting in his removal as chairman of the Tesla board and the payment of financial penalties, but he seems unlikely to give up on his Twitter kicks just yet.
Bitcoin price ‘macro top’? Not so fast — data shows the real FOMO isn’t even here
Published
3 hours ago
on
February 26, 2021
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Bitcoin (BTC) bears thinking that $58,000 was this cycle’s top will be sorely disappointed, fresh investment data from past bull markets shows.
Compiled by on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, statistics covering BTC buys of between $5 million and $7 million conclude that even at recent all-time highs, Bitcoin was far from a “macro top.”
“No FOMO in sight” for BTC
During the 2017 and shorter 2019 bull market, Bitcoin saw mass buy-ins of a similar size — $5-7 million.
When investments of that amount hit a peak, price action began to reverse, signalling the start of consolidation or a heavier retracement.
According to Whalemap, cash injections in that area have been far from their previous peaks this year, indicating that the current correction will likely be temporary and on par with BTC’s typical corrections during a bull run.
“Previous macro tops have occurred when thousands of transactions worth 5 to 7 million dollars each were flooding the blockchain. True FOMO,” researchers tweeted on Feb. 25.
“Currently, no such FOMO in sight for BTC.”
Bitcoin $5-7 million transaction volume vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Whalemap/ Twitter
The expectation of further buy-ins supports existing data that came to light this week, notably from Coinbase Pro, which has seen multiple tranches of over 10,000 BTC leave its books for private or custody wallets.
The first negative premium on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since early 2017 may also point to the conclusion that the 2021 bull cycle still has a lot more room to run.
“Another significant Coinbase outflows at 48k. US institutional investors are still buying $BTC,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of fellow monitoring resource CryptoQuant, tweeted on Friday.
“I think the major reason for this drop is the jittering macro environment like the 10-year Treasury note, not whale deposits, miner selling, and lack of institutional demand.”
Liquidity grab?
The start of the turnaround maybe sooner than many think. In his latest analysis, pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital eyed the 4-hour BTC/USD chart for proof of a turnaround.
“Pulls back but still holds the wick-to-wick Higher Low. Turn $46720 in to support (black) and BTC will move higher. Strong bullish divergences on the 4HR are appearing as well,” he commented alongside an annotated screenshot of the chart.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, the Whalemap team noted that short-term the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) — which tracks overall market profit and loss — was indicating that a deeper sell-off is off the cards, at least for now.
“Hourly SOPR shows potential for at least a short term bounce,” they said.
BTC/USD SOPR chart. Source: Whalemap
Friday further sees a major expiry event on Bitcoin options, something which has dictated temporary downward pressure on BTC in the past.
The day’s low of $44,150, some say, was merely an attempt to suck up liquidity before the next leg higher.
“Yes, market dumped after ‘mega-whales’ sold into the rally (as warned), but since then, they have been buying dips!” the creator of exchange orderbook data analysis service Material Indicators observed.
“With stonks uncertainty, I don’t know how many more dips there will be, but they’re being bought!”
That “uncertainty” is being exacerbated by concerning trends in bond yields, Cointelegraph reported this week, with behavior seen as similar to before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.