After shaking off the worst selloff in months without a scratch, the current Bitcoin uptrend seems completely unstoppable. Despite the incredible momentum that took the cryptocurrency from $10,000 to $40,00o in a flash, the creator of the world’s most cited valuation model says the asset has yet to reach the “point of no return.” When that happens, the real parabolic advance will unfold.
Here’s what to expect from Bitcoin when it enters the final phase of its bull run later this year.
Plan B: Bitcoin Rally Heats Up, But Hasn’t Reached “The Point Of No Return”
Bitcoin fever is hotter than ever, now the topic of interest of top economists, institutional investors, and hedge fund managers. After writing it off as just a fad, Wall Street and the wealthy are finally beginning to hold the digitally scarce asset.
RELATED READING | BITCOIN WEEKLY “RELATIVE STRENGTH” MORE POWERFUL THAN RECORD 2017 RALLY
The sudden surge of demand coupled with diminishing supply, has caused a bullish breakout that send the price per BTC soaring by more than five times over. The uptick in price appreciation has long been predicted by Plan B’s stock-to-flow model (S2F), but has only recently started to show validity.
#bitcoin $38K is nice, but I am still waiting for that larger monthly jump that usually marks the phase transition / the point of no return (red arrows) #phase5pic.twitter.com/mWOLadqOys
The model had some investors expecting the cryptocurrency to trade above $50K by May 2020, but that date came and went, and Bitcoin has still yet to reach such a level. But according to the model’s creator, it very well could soon reach that number and then some, once Bitcoin reaches the “point of no return” in this parabolic cycle.
Can History Calculate The Cryptocurrency’s Remaining Upside?
The stock-to-flow model attempts to affix a estimated valuation on the price per BTC based on scarcity alone. The asset’s hard-coded block reward halving mechanism, further diminishes the already limited supply. When that occurred on May 2020, even though there wasn’t an immediate reaction sending prices to over $50K, it did put Bitcoin on the path it is currently on.
RELATED READING | HERE’S WHAT HISTORY SAYS TO EXPECT FROM BITCOIN IN 2021
And while there are stunning comparisons between now and the 2017 peak, Plan B’s model shows that the real bull run hasn’t even begun yet. That’s the point of no return the model’s creator is referring to.
Each point of no return offered 600-800% ROI following | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The chart above demonstrates what “the point of no return” looks like. From that point on, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap adds another between 600-800% to its value. A similar rise from current levels, would put the price per BTC at around $250,000 to $350,000, which isn’t unrealistic considering the targets experts from all walks of life are predicting.
Superimposing the previous bull market over the current one, puts the top at a trajectory of around $325,000. Analysts have offered targets reaching as high as $400,000 to $500,000 per coin in the long-term.
Bitcoin rising higher from here is less important of a question than how high it goes, and when the point of no return begins.
Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com and Plan B
Bitcoin Enters Consolidation Phase as Analysts Set Their Sights on This Major Crypto
Published
4 hours ago
on
January 23, 2021
By
Bitcoin has seen some mixed price action as of late, with bulls and bears largely reaching an impasse as the crypto consolidates
Following its recent plunge to below $29,000, the crypto has been seeing some sideways trading that has made it incredibly unclear as to where it will trend next
One analyst noted that Bitcoin is showing few signs of clear strength or weakness, which likely means that it is bound to see some sideways trading
This comes as one major altcoin begins showing immense signs of strength – especially against its BTC trading pair
Analysts are closely watching Ethereum, as it is currently on the cusp of breaking out
Bitcoin has been tempering the rest of the market’s bullishness as of late, with buyers and sellers both struggling to take a firm hold of the trend.
While BTC consolidates in the lower-$30,000 region, many altcoins are beginning to flash subtle signs of strength.
One such example is Ethereum, which has largely been tracking Bitcoin’s price action as of late. However, this trend has started shifting into ETH’s favor, as the crypto is holding up well compared to BTC and flashing a bullish technical pattern on its ETH/BTC chart.
Bitcoin Consolidates Following Recent Volatility
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down just over 2% at its current price of $32,170. This is around the price at which it has been trading ever since its price plunged below $29,000 a few days ago.
After tapping lows of $28,800, the crypto rallied to highs of $34,000 before sliding lower and stabilizing around its current price.
This has caused the entire market to see only tempered growth, with a few altcoins rallying while many stagnate.
Analyst: ETH’s Strength Against BTC Suggests Massive Upside is Imminent
Bitcoin’s consolidation may be beneficial to the aggregated altcoin market, as one analyst is now noting that Ethereum could be poised to explode higher thanks to strength against its Bitcoin trading pair.
This could allow the aggregated altcoin market to rally higher independent of BTC.
“In my previous post I said that BTC looks like it’s going to go sideways. Meanwhile $ETH/BTC looks like this… This chart kind makes me wanna go all in. In fact a lot of alts look amazing vs BTC.”
Image Courtesy of Byzantine General. Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.
The coming few days should shine a light on how altcoins like Ethereum will trend against Bitcoin, as any massive BTC rally or plunge could hinder its smaller counterparts’ momentum.
Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.
Amid blackouts and police raids, Iran weighs benefits of Bitcoin mining
Published
8 hours ago
on
January 23, 2021
By
As blackouts and police raids roil the upstart Iranian Bitcoin mining industry, a match between a permissionless currency and a country throttled by inflation that once seemed like a perfect fit is now being called into question.
As Cointelegraph has previously reported, Iran joins Pakistan as a cryptocurrency superpower in the Middle East, owing in part due to cheap, heavily subsidized electricity prices, as well as a boost in activity following an approval of Bitcoin mining as an “industrial activity” for power plants in 2020. It’s been estimated that there are well over 1000 legal entities currently engaged in mining activities.
However, the short history of cryptocurrency mining in the country has not always been a rosy one. Authorities have moved to shut down at least a thousand illegal farms in recent months, and Bitcoin spot prices have been mispriced at time relative to the rest of the world due to high demand as investors flee the rapidly inflating rial.
Now, another source of friction has emerged as the country is plunged into frequent power blackouts in large population centers.
On January 16th, multiple outlets reported that Iran suffered blackouts throughout most of the country. Social media reports have indicated that power has been spotty both before and after the outage on the 16th, however, with multiple cities experiencing blackouts all through the past two weeks.
Authorities have been quick to blame Bitcoin mining for the outages and have publicized police raids on illegal mining operations, but some experts think the government is simply searching for excuses for a long-decaying power grid.
In an interview with the Associated Press on Thursday, former deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment Kaveh Madani said that Bitcoin was an “easy victim,” and that “decades” of administrative mismanagement are a more likely root cause.
Moreover, while retail mining may currently be acting as a scapegoat for the government, it’s clear that authorities aren’t entirely turning their backs on cryptocurrency. As recently as last month Bitcoin was used to facilitate import payments from Venezuela.
While the relationship may be rocky at the moment, this certainly doesn’t appear to be the end of Bitcoin in Iran.
Analysts warn of ‘institutional exhaustion’ with Bitcoin price back below $32K
Published
11 hours ago
on
January 23, 2021
By
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) recovered in the past two days after dropping to as low as $28,850. Following the swift rebound, however, BTC has been unable to break past heavy resistance at $33,000 on Jan. 23, pulling back below $32,000 at the time of writing.
Coinbase premium returning is bullish, but what now?
Earlier, when the price of Bitcoin started to drop below $32,000, BTC traded much lower on Coinbase than on Binance.
The lack of premium on Coinbase was worrying for two key reasons. First, Bitcoin naturally trades higher on Coinbase due to the minor premium of Tether.
Second, when Coinbase sees a lower price than other exchanges, it shows that there is high selling pressure in the U.S. market.
As the selling pressure on Bitcoin began to increase in the U.S. market, the price of BTC feel steeply in a short period.
BTC/USD (white) vs. Coinbase premium Index (blue). Source: CryptoQuant
But, almost immediately after BTC rebounded from $30,000, the Coinbase premium reappeared. At the time of writing, BTC is around $40 higher on Coinbase than on Binance.
The Coinbase premium re-emerging after nearly 12 hours is a positive sign of a potential trend reversal.
Signs of “institutional exhaustion”
But everyone is far from bullish in the near term, however. Analysts at QCP Capital, a team of traders in Asia, see several signs of “institutional exhaustion.”
Considering that the main narrative around the recent has been the institutional demand for Bitcoin coming from the U.S., the rally may be in danger if the institutional appetite for BTC slows down. They said:
“Signs of institutional exhaustion: We’ve done a timezone analysis which breaks down BTC moves into Asia hours vs. US hours (12 hours each). Since March last year, the clear pattern has been relentless US buying while Asian whales and miners have been on the offer.”
Bitcoin loses strength in U.S. period. Source: QCP Capital
The traders empahsized that the strength in the U.S. trading session lost momentum for the first time.
In fact, throughout the past week, most of the BTC selling pressure came from Asia. This marks a key shift in market sentiment. They added:
“However after the BTC top 2 weeks ago, the strength in US hours has lost momentum for the first time. This is a clear sign of exhaustion in demand from the US institutions and corporates who have been the primary drivers of this bull run.”
What comes next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is at risk of a corrective phase throughout the first quarter of 2021 if institutional demand for BTC subsides.
Various institution-focused platforms and vehicles, like Grayscale, are still seeing large inflows, which is indicative of solid institutional demand. At the same time, MicroStrategy continues its policy of buying Bitcoin on each dip with the latest purchase on Friday totaling $10 million.
“Today, $31,000 was a pocket of strong support, so at least not everyone is selling,” said Chad Steinglass, head of trading at Crosstower, a digital assets capital markets firm.
“We’ll have to wait and see if that wall remains, or if institutions continue to accumulate. If they do, it’s likely that the trend will re-establish itself and continue. If they move to the sidelines waiting for more regulatory guidance, then their lack of buy flows will be acutely felt.”
At the same time, the likelihood of a wider correction remains if the U.S. market continues to see an overall decline in the appetite to accumulate BTC, particularly if the dollar continues to recover in 2021.