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ADA/USD Analysis: Patterns And Levels To Watch

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The cryptocurrency market has recovered after a Sunday-Monday crash this week. The recovery is associated with the developments in the US and the drop of the US Dollar overnight.

Cardano is one of the coins to watch as there are signs of a bullish continuation. As seen on a 4H chart ADA/USD has established a descending channel and is proceeding within its support and resistance levels. As seen on the chart the current setup, support from EMA50 and MACD demonstrate a bullish run up to a resistance near $0.322270.

Cardano price on Overbit

However, to do so, Cardano has to overtake another short-term dynamic resistance, described on an hourly chart below. As seen on the chart, both uptrend and downtrend scenarios are valid. The bet on an uptrend could be higher as Cardano cleared off the upper edge of a triangle on the same chart.

Cardano price on Overbit

On a 15M chart there are two harmonic patterns on the watch, the first described below is a Gartley pattern.

Cardano price on Overbit

And a Crab pattern, see the image below.

Cardano price on Overbit

The ending point, point D of both patterns, take place at important resistance levels. It is worth mentioning that harmonic patterns are formations that appear on corrective wave structures and very rarely on an impulse wave.

The alternative to the uptrend scenario is, if Cardano does not close above the dynamic resistance, it will drop to test $0.261400 support which is a Fibo 0.618 level of the last impulse and to $0.244000 below that.

Cardano price on Overbit

Key Takeaways and Announcements of Data This Week

  • Today, January 13 – we are expecting CPI and Core CPI data as well as speeches of the FOMC members.
  • Tomorrow, January 14 – Initial Jobless Claims and FED Chairman Mr. Powell speech.
  • Friday, January 14 – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and PPI.

Almost all of the forecasts for each economic data announcement signal the recovery of the US Dollar, although the unrest in the market due to the Impeachment and possible riots remain.

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Altcoin

83% of cryptocurrencies that peaked in 2018 are still down by 90%

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Data published by crypto market data aggregator Messari shows that 83% of crypto assets that tagged all-time highs in January 2018 are still down by at least 90%.

The data was spotted by CMT Digital analyst Matt Casto, who tweeted data showing the average return-on-investment, or ROI, of crypto assets sorted by the year in which they posted record price highs.

The data set included 410 assets that posted record prices during 2017 or later, with 2018’s 157 star coins performing the worst with an average of -90.71% since the previous ATH. 

2017’s top crypto’s have since crashed by 82% on average, while 2019’s crop is down 72%, and 2020’s standouts have shed 53%.

The data may help support the ‘great repricing’ concept, that the capital that once flowed into the “ghost-chain” layer-one blockchains that dominated the sector in 2017 and 2018 is now being redirected towards the nascent DeFi sector.

The concept is even a trading strategy for some, with dHedge pool manager Wangarian describing his strategy as longing “tokens that obtain direct value accrual (DeFi)” while shorting “dogs**t L1s that have no value accrual whatsoever.”

However, despite the poor performances of many altcoins from yesteryear when compared to their record highs, many older altcoins have still produced enormous percentage gains since bottoming out.

Since finding local lows during the “Black Thursday” crash of March 2020, Cardano (ADA) has increased nearly 1,700%, Zilliqa (ZIL) is up 2,670%, and Decred (DCR) has gained 14,130% from their respective price floors.





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All-time high social activity accompanies 100% rally in Cardano price

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Social media mentions about Cardano have been growing since the beginning of the year, and during this time, the price of its ADA token has more than doubled, in the process surpassing Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to become the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. 

A deeper dive into data from Twitter data failed to identify a specific driver of ADA’s bullish price action, but data from The Tie did show that Cardano mentions recently reached an all-time high, with the price tracking the increase.

Cardano 30-day average tweet volume vs. price. Source: TheTIE

Keyword analysis of Cardano-related tweets also failed to identify the motivating factor behind the recent social media surge but terms like “pool,” “stake” and “staking pools” were the most frequent trigger words in the majority of discussions led by community members.

In private comments with Cointelegraph, Joshua Frank, founder of The Tie, said that chatter regarding an “interoperability bridge between Cardano and IOTA” that began making the rounds on Jan. 2 seems to have corresponded with the upward price movement and a relatively large increase in tweets.

This is referring to a recent discussion on Iota’s discord in which project co-founder Dominik Schiener was asked if the Iota Foundation was interested in developing a “bridge to Cardano.” In response, Schiener stated, “Yeh 100%. Once we’re ready I’ll reach out to Charles again.”

According to Frank:

“24 hours after the idea started being discussed Cardano saw a 63% increase in tweet volume and price surged 27% vs. USD and 25% vs. BTC, suggesting that this was an uncorrelated move.”

ADA price vs. tweet volume. Source: The Tie

Development enters the Gougen phase

Cardano’s roadmap indicates that the project recently transitioned from the Shelly era to the Goguen era.

The Shelly era brought decentralization to the core of the network and enabled ADA holders to stake and delegate their tokens to earn rewards.

Now that the project has entered the Goguen era, the focus of development is on the integration of smart contracts and the ability to build decentralized applications, or DApps, on the network.

The addition of smart contracts and DApps opens a whole new realm of functionalities for the Cardano network, including the ability to create decentralized finance applications.

In a recent conversation with Cointelegraph, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson opined on the future of DeFi and how the team plans to “take the lead in the DeFi space by developing partnerships in the African continent.”

According to Hoskinson, the real potential of DeFi will be realized in developing countries where he sees the potential to acquire 100 million new users within the next three years.

Hoskinson said Cardano was:

“Built for the purpose of creating liquidity for the poorest people in the world and allow them to build wealth and protect the wealth that they’ve acquired.”

Staking backs ADA’s rally

On Jan. 1, prior to any well-known mentions of a bridge between Cardano and Iota, ADA was trading at $0.173, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1 billion.

Over the past two weeks the price and volume increased by more than 200%, with the current daily trading volume averaging $3 billion and ADA trading near $0.358.

ADA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

One possible source of the upward price pressure is a decrease in the circulating supply due to a large number of ADA holders staking on the network.

Data from Staking Rewards indicates that 70% of ADA’s total supply (21.84 billion ADA) is being staked on the network. Investors who stake earn 4.28% APY for each epoch (5 days), and payouts are automatically distributed at the protocol level.

Total ADA staked. Source: Staking Rewards

There are currently 1,468 active validators on the network serving 140,130 total delegators, with the largest validation pool holding 1.77% of the total ADA supply being delegated by 851 unique wallet addresses.

A continued uptrend in the staking participation rate over the past month, as seen in the chart above, has the potential to lead to further price appreciation as the number of ADA available for trading slowly dwindles.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.