Bitcoin
Google Trends shows ‘Bitcoin’ searches at 2020 high as BTC tops $19.4K
Today Bitcoin (BTC) price extended its rally toward a new all-time high as the price surged to $19,412 in the morning trading session.
Determining the actual all-time high for BTC is somewhat debatable as various exchanges have different figures listed. For example, Coinbase has registered $19,892 as Bitcoin’s peak, whereas BitMEX and Binance have $19,891 and $19,799 respectively. Thus, for most traders, $20,000 is likely to be the primary focal point that will solidify BTC reaching a new all-time high.
Pushing through the $19,000 level occurred quicker than many expected, especially after Bitcoin price plummeted to $18,000 in the evening hours on Nov. 23. This drop was nearly in tandem with XRP’s 30% drop at Coinbase after the altcoin pumped to $0.92.
Data from TheTie, a social analytics data platform, shows that as Bitcoin price lost momentum on Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, trading sentiment took a noticeable hit when traders anticipated a possible retest of lower supports in the sub-$18,000 zone.
According to Joshua Frank, the founder at TheTIE:
“The daily sentiment score looks at how positive or negative investors have been over the last 24 hours versus a rolling 20-day window. This metric (daily sentiment) has been positive (above 50) since Nov. 16 when Bitcoin was near $16K. For the daily sentiment score to remain positive, that means that conversations must continually get more and more positive. So if investors are positive over the last 20 days, they must be even more positive over the last 24 hours for the score to stay above 50.”
This suggests that regardless of strong pullbacks to say $18,000 or below, the majority of people investing in or tracking Bitcoin price still feel overwhelmingly bullish about the digital asset’s prospects when compared to historical price and sentiment data.
Google Trends data also shows that searches for the term ‘Bitcoin’ also reached a 2020 high today as the price rallied above $19,000 but the figure is nowhere near the high seen in December 2017.
What’s next for Bitcoin price?
As shown on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s flushout to $18,000 created a double bottom right at the key support, and bulls stepped in to buy the dip with 3 successive high volume spikes.
At the time of writing the price has already pulled back to restest the lower support at $18,900 and if this level fails to hold then the next support is at $18,650 which is slightly above the 20-MA and a high volume node on the VPVR.
Similar to the move up to $18,000, a period of consolidation and support building is normal and healthy for sustaining momentum in an uptrend.
According to Matt Blom, the head of global sales trading at EQUOS:
“Bitcoin is focusing on claiming a new all-time high and it seems highly unlikely that having come this close, it fails to break the 2017 record. With a dearth of resistance levels overhead, thoughts turn to the next key upside target. Using Fibonnaci retracements levels, we see $29,100 as the goal, with a 1.618 move from $4,644 to $19,447 price points as our basis.”
Bitcoin’s price correction from its record high of approx $42,000 in early January appears eerily similar to that of spot gold in August 2020.
In retrospect, the precious metal rallied to its all-time high of $2,075.28 on January 8. Its wild move upward prompted traders to secure profits. As a result, the XAU/USD exchange rate started correcting lower in the later sessions. The pair formed a support area between $1,847-1,863, which it eventually broke in late November, falling to as low as $1,764.
Spot gold broke bearish on its descending triangle pattern, only to reclaim its support level less than a week later. Source: XAUUSD on TradingView.com
Gold-Bitcoin Similarity
Marc Principato, the executive director of digitally-operated Green Bridge Investing, highlighted gold’s growing influence over the Bitcoin market in a note published Sunday. Just like the precious metal, the flagship cryptocurrency formed a consolidating descending channel pattern after forming its record high, leading Mr. Principato to envision BTC/USD at $27,500.
“If 27.5K is compromised, for our strategy, that will signal a broader consolidation is likely in play,” he added. “If you want to get a better idea of what this scenario may look like, look at XAUUSD from August to December. This is NOT a prediction; it is a potential scenario to prepare for if Bitcoin chooses to go this route.”
Bitcoin is halfway copying gold price’s moves between August and December. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
So it appears, Bitcoin came halfway across copying the gold market’s moves from 2020. The cryptocurrency now tests the $30,774-30,188 area for a potential breakdown towards the downside support target. Apprehensively, that level could be near $27,700 or $23,500.
“The 27.5K to 32K area so far has proven to be supportive,” reminded Mr. Principato, nonetheless.
“There is a failed low formation in play on the daily time frame while at the same time a new sell signal is about to confirm. As long as 27.5 continues to hold, probability favors an eventual bullish break out in the short term. This can take place over the next week or two,” he added.
The analogy appeared reminiscent of gold’s rebound after hitting $1,764 in November. As the precious metal moved back upwards, it reclaimed the $1,847-1,863 area as support and went on to hit sessional highs near $1,959. Nevertheless, it is now consolidating inside the same range.
Bitcoin draws major comparisons from gold for its safe-haven, anti-inflation, and anti-fiat narratives. Many analysts, including strategists at JPMorgan and Guggenheim Partners, believe the cryptocurrency would mousetrap a portion of gold’s market in the future due to its demand among millennials.
An overnight sell-off in the Bitcoin market Monday brought its prices down from an intraday high of $34,888 to as low as $31,435.
The approx 10 percent decline occurred as traders’ anxieties mounted over a JPMorgan report that cast doubts over Bitcoin’s potential to retest $40,000. According to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the lead strategist at JPMorgan & Chase, one of the major catalysts behind Bitcoin’s supersonic rally was the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which amassed about $20 billion worth of BTC during its 1,000 percent price rally.
Nevertheless, the last couple of weeks saw a decline in the New York fund—of about 22 percent—that surpassed Bitcoin’s very own downside correction of 17 percent.
Mr. Panigirtzoglou added that a drop in Grayscale’s accumulation spree might hinder Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim $40,000 or the levels above it, adding that “the near-term balance of risks is still skewed to the downside.”
Bitcoin Descending Triangle
The bearish fundamental risked activating a classic bearish reversal pattern that has emerged on the Bitcoin charts lately. The BTC/USD exchange rate has been forming a sequence of higher lows on repeated upside rejections while holding its footing at a horizontal support area. The pattern appears like a Descending Triangle.
Bitcoin’s Descending Triangle pattern risks crashing price to near $20,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
In retrospect, a Descending Triangle’s formation in an uptrend points to a reversal.
Most traders look to open a short position following a high-volumed breakdown from the pattern’s lower trendline support. Typically, the price target is as much as the Triangle’s maximum height. In Bitcoin’s case, it is more than $11,000 that puts the cryptocurrency at risk of slipping below $20,000.
Nevertheless, certain adjustments to the support trendline change the entire bearish setup by turning Descending Triangle into a Bull Pennant.
Bitcoin’s Bull Pennant setup expects the price to surge by another $20,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
So it appears, Bitcoin has simultaneously formed lower highs alongside the higher lows, forming a Symmetrical Triangle in an uptrend. In retrospect, it is a bullish continuation pattern that could have traders open long positions following a high-volume breakout above the Triangle resistance trendline.
The Pennant’s upside target is as high as the flagpole formed before it (~$20,000). That puts Bitcoin en route to at least $50,000 should the bullish bias sustain.
Bullish Fundamentals
Fundamentals that could trigger Bitcoin’s Bull Pennant include the US coronavirus stimulus, the Federal Reserve’s pro-inflation policies, and a bearish outlook for the US dollar. That has prompted many corporations and investors to seek hedge in Bitcoin due to its similarities with safe-haven gold.
“We’re talking about Bitcoin over the next three, five, ten years slowly inching away at gold’s market capitalization,” Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific with Singapore-based crypto exchange Luno, told Bloomberg Tuesday. “If that happens, you are way over $50,000.”
BTC/USD was trading above $32,000 at the time of this writing.
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