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Nearly 99% Of Bitcoin Ownership Has Been Profitable, Data Reveals

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Bitcoin is the best-performing mainstream asset in 2020, next to stocks, gold, and anything else. But according to new data, owning the top crypto asset by market cap at any point in nearly 99% of its existence would have resulted in profitability. Here’s how high the price of Bitcoin will need to reach before it reaches 100% profitability once again and what that will mean for the crypto market.

Buying Bitcoin Has Been Profitable, Nearly 99% Of The Time Data Shows

The first-ever cryptocurrency has, as analysts expected, thus far been a primary beneficiary of the post-pandemic world. The all-digital, ultra-scarce asset has beaten gold, soaring stock valuations, and anything else aside from less liquid altcoin cousins.

In just ten years, it has performed over 100,000,000% in ROI, leaving only 1.5% of days unprofitable in its existence remaining. Currently, there’s only one single day in 2020 that buying Bitcoin was unprofitable,. And with the cryptocurrency only trading $20 or so below the 2020 high – by the time this is published another few days could be knocked off the chart, and the closer to 99%.

Days profitable in Bitcoin | Source: LookIntoBitcoin.com

According to LookIntoBitcoin charts, there have been 3663 profitable days holding BTC, out of a total of 3718 days. This represents 98.5% of Bitcoin’s entire lifecycle thus far.

With less than two months worth of unprofitable price action to overtake, 100% might not be that far away.

What Will It Take To Return To 100% Positive ROI In Crypto?

According to Bitstamp’s BTCUSD price action from TradingView.com, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap truly spent more like 43 days above the current price level, with just a handful or two worth of wicks or one-day candle closes above it.

During those short spikes, anyone who was sucked into the peak Bitcoin FOMO is still stuck at a loss, either continuing to hold until that changes or having sold somewhere along the way.

bitcoin btcusd profitable days

Target for crypto to be profitable  | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Even fewer days have been spent above $13,800 where the 2019 top was set. If Bitcoin can beat its current 2020 high of $12,466, then the next likely target would be retesting the 2019 high.

The cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum could take out that resistance level this time with ease, instead, sending it to the next pit stop at around $16,500. Bitcoin has spent only a handful of days above this level. Beyond there, there’s the former all-time high of $20,000.

Above that level, Bitcoin will return to full 100% profitability, and back to price discovery. Where it eventually finds its next peak, will be the talk of the next year or more until that day comes.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Chart from Look Into Bitcoin and TradingView.com



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Bitcoin

High priced $32K Bitcoin options show some pro traders expect more upside

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A month ago, one would be hard pressed to find any investor who would have expected a $32,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for January. At the time, a 140% upside was needed from the $13,300 price on Oct. 30 and this seemed quite far fetched. 

Therefore, the January $32,000 BTC call (buy) options traded at Deribit for a meager $67, or 0.005 BTC in late October.

BTC $32,000 Jan. 2021 call option, in BTC. Source: Deribit

Fast forward to now, and the same call option peaked at $705. That’s an almost 10x gain in less than four weeks. Keep in mind that despite the rally to $19,484, an additional 67% upside is still needed to reach $32,000.

BTC Jan. 2021 call option market. Source: Deribit

Albeit the recent BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 11%. That call option price has also increased due to the BTC volatility change as sellers will request a more substantial premium for taking the risk during uncertain markets.

Intense price swings, regardless of the direction, will push volatility higher and any unexpected newsflow usually drives the indicator upwards.

Bitcoin 3-month options implied volatility. Source: Skew

Take notice of how BTC volatility spiked from 57% on 30 Oct. to 78% this week. This event is notably bullish for call option buyers. Even if the BTC price had stayed the same, the option price would have climbed accordingly.

Don’t take options probabilities literally

Options pricing is also heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. This same $32,000 call might be deemed worthless two days ahead of maturity. Therefore, traders should not fixate too much on implied options probability (delta).

BTC Dec. 2020 call option market. Source: Deribit

By looking at call (buy) options for Dec. 25, an investor might infer that the 26% odds for $20,000 seems dim. After all, an 18% pump in a month seems unreasonable. Traders tend to have a short-term memory, but an 18% increase in 30 days happened in 9 out of the past 12 months.

Bitcoin price (USD) at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

The last time an 18% or even larger monthly pump happened was not so long ago. On Aug. 23 Bitcoin closed at $11,645, which was a 22% increase from the previous month.

Traders and investors should consider buying call options with longer expiry dates. Those who were brave enough to bet on the 150% BTC price increase a month ago are extremely satisfied with the results.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.